The recent weeks have been a turning point in the history of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Starlink became one of the most significant issues. Starlink users access the internet for data or voice communication by using a small satellite dish to bounce signals off a constellation of satellites overhead. Because Ukraine’s mobile networks were damaged by Russian bombing at the start of the war, Starlink sent its dishes. Ukraine said last year it has about 42,000 Starlink terminals in operation in the country, half of which are financed by Poland.
Threats to cut off Ukraine’s access to Starlink
During the negotiations between US and Ukraine on the minerals deal, it was reported that the United States has threatened to cut off Ukraine’s access to Starlink satellite internet terminals if Kyiv does not reach a deal with the US Elon Musk denied the reports.
There was a clash between Elon Musk and the Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski. Elon Musk wrote on X that Ukraine’s “entire front line” would collapse if he turned the system off. Radoslaw Sikorski responded, saying his country paid for its use in Ukraine and a threat to shut it down would result in a search for another network. Musk later responded to Sikorski’s post: “Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink,”. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X: “True leadership means respect for partners and allies. Even for the smaller and weaker ones. Never arrogance. Dear friends, think about it.” Elon Musk also wrote that if he disagrees with “Ukraine policy”, “Starlink will never turn off its terminals”.
Yaroslav Trofimov, the chief foreign affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal, wrote on X to describe the war of words as “another extraordinary moment in diplomacy.” and that “Europe’s technological decoupling from the U.S., unthinkable weeks ago, is becoming a national security priority”.
The possible consequences of disconnection
Starlink’s presence in Ukraine has not only proven invaluable on the combat front but also in restoring energy and communication infrastructure targeted by Russia.
Since the start of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, one of the improvisations for effective Ukrainian resistance has been the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), commonly called drones, such as this modified DJI Matrice 300. Connected via a Starlink satellite, it allows Ukrainian artillery teams to target Russian positions by dropping anti-tank munitions, often in silence and at night. As Russian missile strikes, drone attacks, and shelling of energy infrastructure have left more and more Ukrainian villages, towns, and cities without power, Starlink terminals are vital to Ukraine’s ability to connect to the outside world.
Military use of satellites on the frontline
Radio Free Europe reported from one of the frontline towns in the Chernihiv region, where the Starlink system is indispensable to Ukrainians, as the mobile network is often down.
Egor Firsov, a member of Verkovna Rada who is currently serving in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, writes that the blocking of Starlink will create problems immediately because infantry in strongpoints, reconnaissance, drone crews, artillerymen, headquarters in brigades and battalions are all using Starlink. As soon as Starlink is switched off, a disorganisation in management would begin and some drones will stop operating.
One communications and electronic warfare expert said that the Ukrainian military understood what an unstable partner they were dealing with and they arranged an alternative. He says even if for some reason Starlink stops working, the Ukrainian military will not be left without communication but for drone operations and targeting, this would pose a significant problem, but it can be solved, and that even though it will be a big problem and quite painful, but it will not be a catastrophe, adding that such panic may be deliberately created by Russia (in article written as ‘russia’).
SpaceX may lose contracts
However, Polish Deputy PM Krzysztof Gawkowski said a decision to disconnect Ukraine from his Starlink satellite internet would trigger a “major international crisis,” as it is the business relations between Poland and American company (SpaceX) at stake too.
There will be consequences for SpaceX too as it is already facing an investment problem. As a result of the fallout between Musk and Carlos Slim, the head of Mexico’s América Móvil telco, Slim decided to cancel his collaboration with Musk’s Starlink. América Móvil had previously announced plans to invest $22 billion (€21.2bn) over the next three years to enhance its telecommunications infrastructure and had mentioned Starlink as its potential partner.
Possible alternatives
The Ukrainian Defence Minister said that Ukraine does have an alternative to Starlink, without providing specific details. However, the commander of Unmanned Systems Forces said that Starlink satellite internet remains the only way for Ukraine to maintain effective control over battlefield operations and that Ukraine must consider the necessity of having its own similar internet access system as a nation, but within the operations of Unmanned Systems Forces, it is one of the primary means used for communication, coordinating military activities from between pilots and commanders.
Without the US, Ukraine’s strongest allies are in Europe. The European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier said Kyiv had already “expressed interest” in how it could use Govsatcom, a pooled network of the EU’s existing national government satellite capacity, and IRIS², a new constellation only set to be operational in the 2030s.However,the Govsatcom program does not involve launching dedicated satellites and it relies on existing European military and commercial satellites. The problem is that these satellites were likely not originally designed to serve as the backbone of such a system, and their speed and capacity may be significantly lower than that of Starlink satellites, which were built specifically for high-performance global coverage. Nevertheless, Govsatcom could serve as a viable temporary solution if Starlink becomes unavailable.
Eutelsat
Another possible alternative is Eutelsat. This is a French satellite operator. 10.89% of its shares are owned by the UK government and the other 10.89% are owned by SB Investment Advisers (UK) Ltd. It already supports government and institutional communications in Ukraine, and told Reuters that it can provide an alternative for certain government and defence applications. Eutelsat has 630 low earth orbit (LEO) satellites backed up by 35 linked satellites in high, while Starlink has 7000. However, it says that it offers the same capabilities as Starlink. Eutelsat promises 150 megabits per second while Starlink promises 200. The other potential companies are Hispasat, SES, and OneWeb offer satellite internet services that could fill the gap.
The company confirmed that it is working with European authorities to increase their satellite service in Ukraine, and that its low-Earth satellites are already deployed in Ukraine to support “government and institutional communications. The company is also considering using its 35 geostationary satellites to provide “additional capacity” over Ukraine and “stronger resilience” for the country’s connectivity. Eutelsat CEO Eva Berneke said that everyone is asking if they can replace the Starlink in Ukraine and that they are looking at that, and that the company is in discussions with suppliers to provide both military-grade and standard terminals and would need “a couple of months” to supply 40,000 units. Eutelsat’s proposal combines OneWeb’s low Earth orbit satellites, positioned around 1,200 kilometers (746 miles) above the surface, with its geostationary satellites at 35,000 kilometers (21,748 miles). The dual-constellation approach could provide essential connectivity for Ukraine’s military, including for drone operations that have inflicted significant losses on Russian forces. As a result of the possible replacement, Eutelsat’s shares have gone up.
