If there is an award for the most inept way of announcing bad news, Stagecoach SE would have platinum status. Whenever the government of the day subscribes yet more cash to improve bus services, especially those rural lifeline services, Stagecoach invariably cuts services or increases prices. It’s almost as if they think the Kent Bus Service Improvement Plan is their piggy bank.
In their latest wheeze, Stagecoach SE has increased fares by ending return fares, removing some travel cards and increasing fares for children, while dividing some services into several parts to collect the £3 fare cap each time. Passengers in Dover and Canterbury will be most affected because Stagecoach is claiming that people are not using the buses. If this is true, is it any wonder why bus passenger numbers are in decline locally, when elsewhere in the UK, passenger numbers are stabilising or even increasing?
Bus service cuts
This time it is the Canterbury to Faversham bus services being cut. Only a few weeks ago Dover and Deal services were cut back again. Increasing fares and cutting services in Dover and Canterbury is an odd way of improving passenger numbers. The bus services bill is currently going through Parliament and is meant to end the postcode lottery with bus services, protect ‘lifeline’ services and reduce the increasingly large areas where bus services no longer exist.
Contrary to what Stagecoach says, services like the 12 service from Deal to Canterbury are busy. But it is a service where Stagecoach has chopped and changed the frequency of the service so many times that passengers cannot rely on the local bus as a mode of transport. In effect, passengers are being corralled to fewer bus services, probably because Stagecoach has cut garage or depot capacity by closing the Folkestone depot. This means more empty bus mileage to start and finish services in Folkestone, more chances of delays en route, and increased running costs. The Stagecoach fleet is also ageing and relies on transfers from other Stagecoach fleets to maintain any semblance of a network.
Retirees rely on bus services
Kent County Council’s response to whatever Stagecoach and Arriva propose is to shrug and say they don’t have the power to change things. However, they have just received £23.5m to improve services and therefore change things, so what is going on? If things do not change, the bus as a form of transport, may disappear in most areas. East Kent is home to many retirees, and as such they rely on a reliable and comprehensive form of public transport being available, for social and health reasons.
So what does Stagecoach SE say? The operator says a 26% rise in its running costs has forced it to take action to recover the money. It goes on to say that it has held the price of multi-journey tickets as low as possible since 2022, but increases are necessary to rebalance our prices across the range of ticket options available.
Is any of this true? What does ‘rebalancing prices’ mean? How can we know?
Profit for DWS in Frankfurt
The bus company will have a profit target it will have to meet, set by its owner DWS in Frankfurt. I doubt if DWS is much concerned about the hardship some of this will cause in East Kent because it is a subsidiary of a large German bank.
Stagecoach faces higher staff costs due to inflation and the employer national insurance tax rise. Staff costs account for around 65% of total operating costs in a typical bus company. However, that does not add up to a 26% increase in operating costs. On the plus side, Stagecoach benefits from a fuel subsidy via the Bus Service Operators Grant, or BSOG, and bulk fuel costs have either lowered or remained steady throughout 2024. According to the revised 2023 bus ridership figures, passenger numbers are around 85% of the 2019 figures on a smaller annual mileage, so bus companies carry fewer passengers but on a smaller network. Route One magazine reports even better passenger figures from the DFT.
The government promises better bus services – but not in Kent?
On top of this, the government has been handing out grant money for new vehicles and more money to local authorities to support bus services. Bus ridership and bus networks should be expanding not contracting as the government says ‘better buses are on the way’, but not in Kent. The constant refrain from Stagecoach and Arriva is viability. What does that mean, and how is that achieved? According to the Daily Mail Stagecoach is back in the driving seat, with increased profits, passengers returning, and increased government money to support services.
So we have passengers returning or at least ridership stabilised thanks to various govt grants, income from the subsidised £2/£3 fare cap, and improving profits after what is fair to say was a difficult period, during and following the pandemic. Is Stagecoach SE typical of the group as a whole or is it underperforming, we don’t know.
The lack of investment in replacement vehicles is concerning, and the additional mileage because of the closure of the Folkestone depot increases operating costs. Stagecoach is investing in Scotland, and the metropolitan areas, but in other parts of rural England, Stagecoach is not seen in such a positive light, as much of the same low-quality service provision as seen in Kent is what is delivered.
It is interesting to note that where franchising either operates or is in process, Stagecoach invests to bolster its position. The same applies in the Leicester Enhanced Partnership where six operators including Stagecoach compete for business.
In Kent, there is a weak, almost non-existent enhanced partnership. As a result, Arriva and Stagecoach South East form an oligopoly and dominate the market. The bus services bill mentions protection-for-lifeline services, so how is that going to happen and how will the local bus oligopoly respond?
Having spent considerable sums on supporting bus services, the government will not be pleased with the latest Stagecoach discouragement to increasing passenger numbers.
To sum up:
- Stagecoach group profits are increasing.
- Passenger numbers in the UK are increasing.
- Locally, service cuts and price increases are being applied without much care for the future or what customers think. It appears that Stagecoach is applying a take it or leave it policy towards passengers and is expecting KCC to hand over government subsidy money anyway.
- The passengers most affected by the latest round of fare increases are crowded onto fewer, older buses.
- Reliability is poor, with more breakdowns and failures due to the increasing age of the fleet.
- Some vehicles are 20 years old and many (at least 60%) are reaching the end of their useful life (15+ years). Even the Dover fastrack is not top of the line, bearing in mind its £34m cost, as it delivers poorly sited and built bus stops, no real-time passenger information at these bus stops, no electric buses as promised. Instead, five second-hand diesel buses culled from different areas in various colours, one of which broke down on the first day of service.
- Many lifeline services are non-existent or cut to a nullity (three services daily, or less). Other services are cut to an hourly service when previously a half-hourly service ran, with just a cursory explanation from Stagecoach and a shrug from KCC.
- The general passenger experience is poor, with rundown bus shelters, old buses and bus stops without timetables. The Stagecoach app is of limited utility, as it is not accurate.
- Congestion and pollution in many of our town centres is a continuing problem. The bus provides a solution, but it fails to attract motorists, because of the poor quality of many bus services
We are reaching a crisis point in our local bus services
IPPR North reports that bus services are cut disproportionately, leaving deprived areas such as coastal communities poorly connected and suffering from congestion, pollution, and economic disadvantage.
Why does this matter? The IPPR North report points out that bus service cuts led to the UK economy reducing by £2.6bn because fewer bus passengers travelled, and local economies suffered as a result. During the period in question (2011 to 2023), car travel increased by 1.1 billion miles, adding further to congestion and pollution.
Apart from the environmental, economic and social disadvantages caused by the ineffectiveness of the current Bus Service Improvement Plan or BSIP. The government and the taxpayer are not receiving good value for money from the three partners in the Enhanced Partners.We should expect a much better network of services from them.
Postscript: As I write this article, a bus caught fire on the A256 near Eastry in East Kent. The bus appears to be a total loss and was fortunately ‘out of service’, with no passengers on board, but it does give weight to the concern about the age of the fleet. A misguided individual claimed it was a ZEB or an electric bus when of course there are no ZEBs operating in East Kent.
