Every day I read something in the international media about Viktor Orbán that makes me cringe. Hungary is the country of my birth and in order to have the freedoms of an EU passport, I took on Hungarian citizenship. I have relatives in Hungary and visit them regularly. I have always been interested in Hungarian politics as it impacts their lives, however, now I can vote in the national elections, I have immersed myself all the more.
I have written about Orbán in the past; about the struggling Hungarian universities and his stance on Russia, but this time I want to look at the possible reasons for the nation’s descent into what has come to be known as ‘illiberal democracy’. I am trying to understand what it is in Hungary’s history that enables an autocratic leader to be re-elected time after time.
Hungary’s suppression
Hungary has been colonised and suppressed through the centuries. The country suffered the brunt of the Ottoman onslaught and the Habsburg Empire’s rule by Austria, which meant that in the two world wars Hungarians were on the losing side.
Hungarians felt betrayed in 1945 when a liberated Austria was included in the Marshall Plan to rebuild the country, together with West Germany. In contrast, Hungary was annexed and colonised by an expanding USSR. The Russian language became a mandatory subject in schools and Hungarian politicians trained in Moscow were installed to rule with an iron fist and suppress all opposition.
The West has not sufficiently taken the country’s past into consideration in expecting a swift change to a functioning democracy. In cultural and ecomomic terms the transition has been complex and difficult for many Hungarians. It is certainly not a coincidence that in Germany the majority of the far-right Alternative fur Germany (AfD)’s supporters are in the former East Germany and the same phenomenon is reflected in the electoral success of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz.
The difficulties of transitioning to democracy
People who had no experience of democracy and viewed the West through a ‘Disneyfied’ Hollywood lens would feel inevitably disgruntled when faced with the reality of life under capitalism. They also lost the security that an autocratic society gave them. Under communism, there were benefits like free and effective health care, life-long jobs and being spared the need to make complex and difficult decisions. Similar to long term prisoners being released into society to fend for themselves, after the initial relief of gaining their freedom, came the realisation of being faced with the responsibilities of a democratic society they were ill-prepared for.
Hungarians’ struggle for freedom
Despite this, many in the country have fought for their democratic freedoms.15 March is a national holiday in Hungary to commemorate the 1848 Revolution against the Austrian Empire. The valiant fight against an overpowering oppressor lives on in the psyche of many people.
I have had personal experience of what the Hungarian population is capable of when attempting to throw off their shackles. I lived through the 1956 Revolution and when the Iron Curtain collapsed in the early 1990s, I had high hopes for the country to become a democratic, modern European nation. By then, at least some private enterprises had begun to flourish and the communist dogma gradually began to lose its grip when Hungarians experiened increasing economic gains.
Authoritarian populism
The dissatisfaction of the Hungarian population at the turn of the century made it susceptible to populist messaging. According to researcher Míriam Juan-Torres González of UC Berkeley’s Othering & Belonging Institute the type of political rhetoric that figures like Donald Trump, Giorgia Meloni and Orbán employ intentionally plays on people’s fears:
“They typically use coercion to achieve these goals rather than by mustering popular support. Often, authoritarians like Vladimir Putin justify their grip on power by fanning the flames of emotionally charged topics and scapegoating marginalized groups. (Russia’s discrimination against the LGBTQ+ community is an example.)”
“Through one lens”, Juan-Torres González says, “there’s the threat of an identity-based outgroup. Through the other, there’s a deep-rooted struggle between the people and elites. The sense of fear and antagonism these lenses promote leads people to accept authoritarian measures to protect themselves and their in-group. Taking these extreme measures that are anti-democratic [is] justified because of the enormity of the threat.”
Orbán is not yet Trump
Despite all the restrictions and attacks on the democratic rights of the Hungarian people, Orbán has not yet gone as far as Trump in his persecution of people he perceives as his enemies. However, in December 2023, the Hungarian Parliament adopted Act LXXXVIII of 2023 on the Protection of National Sovereignty. The act consists of two main pillars: establishing a new Sovereignty Protection Office (SPO) to carry out investigations and amending the criminal code to sanction electoral candidates and representatives of nominating organisations who use prohibited foreign funds for campaigning purposes with up to three years of imprisonment.
Human rights organisation, the Hungarian Helsinki Committee, writes:
“Over 100 civil society organisations, more than 15,000 citizens, and 10 independent media outlets strongly criticised the new law. The Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights called for the abandonment of the proposal, the UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Expression and the Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders noted the imminent negative implications of the adoption of the proposal in their joint communication to the Hungarian Government. The Monitoring Committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe seized the Venice Commission to provide an opinion on the proposal.
“On 7 February 2024 the European Commission announced that it decided to launch an infringement procedure against Hungary for violating EU law on the Defence of Sovereignty.”
How much difference the recent protests and legal procedures will make to Orbán’s plan to go after NGOs, think tanks and individuals opposing his leadership remains to be seen.
As I am a dual British and Hungarian citizen, the statement that he will deport and ban dual citizens who in his view “endanger” the sovereignty of the nation has several of my relatives worried about me, as an ardent pro-EU, and anti-fascism campaigner. With these potentially draconian laws in place it may well be unwise to for me, or anyone in a similar position, to take my phone and laptop when I cross the border this summer.
New hope from Tisza
The newly-established party Tisza (both the name of a river and an abbreviation of respect and freedom) gives Orbán’s opponents hope. It is led by Peter Magyar, a former Orbán supporter. In recent opinion polls, his party overtook Orbán (44% to 39%). Next year’s election might bring about the much hoped for change. If so, Tisza promise to:
“Create real social peace and bury the artificially created separation between Hungarians and Hungarians. Step by step, brick by brick we take back our country and together we will build a new, peaceful. modern, European, democratic and liveable Hungary.”
(Translated by the author)
A new dawn may be in the offing, but Orbán will not go quietly.
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