Restoring the guardrails of democracy: the world v Trump

The U.S. attack on Venezuela and operation to capture President Nicolas Maduro is a step too far in the deliberate dismantling of democratic guidelines during 2025. What events lead to this situation?

During 2025, the first year of Trump’s second presidential term, there were a significant number of changes in how nations and alliances were forced to trade and respond to challenges facing a post-industrial age. The result is a world of increasing uncertainty, mistrust, and an increasing gulf between the “haves” and “have-nots”.

Trump’s recent statements on his aspiration to become leader of the Western Hemisphere have increased the concern that, if not restrained, we may face military conflict between NATO members, a situation Putin is always seeking to achieve. In February 2025 our sister Bylines organisation produced a supplement on how he might proceed to achieve his Liebensraum if not checked.

The guardrails of democracy have been blown away. How must we respond in 2026?

Olga Nesterova, a foreign affairs journalist, has conducted a factual analysis of the contributory events leading up to this tumultuous time in a one-hour, ten-minute YouTube video on Blue Sky entitled A World Without Guardrails: What 2025 Changed — and What 2026 Inherits. It covers the year up to 30 December 2025, before the US attack on Venezuela, and suggests actions the world must take to restore order in 2026. I will summarise the key events and issues analysed by Olga below.

Armed conflicts in 2025

61 armed conflicts globally, the highest since 1946.
11 wars with more than 1,000 deaths per annum.
117 million people forcibly displaced worldwide.
300-306 million people need humanitarian aid.
1 in 26 people on Earth are affected by conflict or crisis.

Add the Trump effect. Aid is no longer given to stave off hunger, famine or sickness. Aid is traded for loyalty or resources. What do I get from you in return? Let’s break down the statistics of the main conflicts.

Human suffering from main conflicts in 2025

Ukraine

5.7 million refugees abroad, 3.7 million internally displaced.
2,311 civilians killed and 11,084 injured between January to November 2025.

Targeting of civilians has steadily increased and become normalised.

In Mariupol, the Russians have rebuilt a theatre studio on top of a mass grave. But Putin was welcomed in Alaska.

Gaza and the West Bank

2.1 million in need of aid.
70,000+ deaths and 1.7 million internally displaced; health system is broken.

Complacency exceeds diplomacy. Post-conflict restoration is being monetised.

Sudan and South Sudan

11.8-12 million displaced, 4.3 million refugees.
21.2 million acute food shortages, 375,000 in famine conditions.
9.3 million in South Sudan need aid, 7.7 million face food shortages and 2.1 million children malnutrition.

Democratic Republic of Congo

8.2 million people displaced, 9 million expected in 2026.
1.2 million refugees.

Myanmar

Over 6,800 civilian deaths since 2021, 3.6 million displaced.
20 million need humanitarian aid, 12 million face acute hunger in 2026.
540,000 children face severe malnutrition in 2026.

Haiti

1.3 to 1.4 million displaced.
Armed gangs have widespread control of the capital, approx. 90% of it.
3,100+ killed in first 6 months of 2025.

Lebanon

40% of people in poverty.
Currency has lost 90% of value; banks insolvent.

Ethiopia

3.3 million displaced.
10.5 million need aid, including 8 million children.

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UN humanitarian aid appeals

In 2025, the UN requested $47 billion to provide international aid. What they received, despite the pain and anguish noted above, was less than half. This year their appeal is for $23 billion, almost half of the previous year. Why? Because their target population reduced from 180 million people to 87 million, not because the need had dropped but rather that capacity had collapsed.

USAID was cancelled. Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had, supposedly, made massive cost savings. But where did the saved money go? Olga’s analysis seeks answers from Forbes’ wealth concentration statistics.

Last year the number of global billionaires increased to 3,000 from 2,780 in 2024, with a combined wealth of $16 trillion. The top ten billionaires added $700 billion to their wealth in one year. Most of this was as an appreciation of their assets on which no tax was paid. The cost savings were, in truth, a transfer of US government funds to the richest friends of Trump. How can that ever be morally or ethically justified?

The UN needed to do more with less while the rich benefited. Billionaires must be made to pay tax.

2026 and the restoration of laws

With every executive order Trump has signed and every claim he makes, he deliberately smashes the rule of law, foregoing checks and balances to give himself the freedom to do as he pleases. He appears to believe God saved him from the (fake) shot through his ear to personally bring peace to the world. But in one year he has made the world a more dangerous place than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962.

The important question is who can ratify a peace deal to end a conflict? With Ukraine, Trump has sought to bully the aggressed into a deal that favours his puppet master, the aggressor, with no involvement of those whom it affects most. He has no respect for the sovereignty of states. His attack on Venezuela is claimed not to be about regime change, but to persuade the regime to change its attitude to be acceptable to him. The Guardian gives a well-considered account. Trump raises a dangerous precedent for further potential conflicts: China v Japan, North v South Korea, Turkey v Greece over Cyprus etc.

His brazenness to even consider military action against Greenland threatens the very existence of NATO. Europe has rightfully responded.

Rules and alliances matter, and every voter must use their right and influence to demand that our leaders do what we expect of them and restore the rights of a sovereign nation enshrined in the UN charter and the guardrails of our democracy.

Europe’s trump card

Trump’s continued hints during 2025 that he is set on an aggressive expansionist policy against Panama, Canada, Mexico and Greenland have been taken seriously by NATO and other democratic countries. The possibility that this is a strategy for the United States to become the leader of the Western Hemisphere as a “Donroe Doctrine” demands an immediate response.

As a test case, Canada has been accepted into the EU Security Action for Europe (SAFE) fund for enhancing the defence capabilities of EU nations through joint procurement of military projects. Having accepted one non-EU state, this could be extended to others including South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. The UK has also applied but is already a member of the AUKUS Australian submarine project and the GCAP 6^th generation fighter programme.

Kaitlyn Collins of CNN TV announced recently that Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, will make a formal announcement on 20 January, exactly a year since Trump’s inauguration.