Ukraine continues to fight against Russian aggression. But it is losing land in Donbas to Russian advances and is faced with shortages of the resources needed to liberate occupied territory. The US and Europe continue to show weakness and seem overtaken by fears of possible escalation. Ukrainians are exhausted by the prolonged war, demotivated to join the defence forces and angry with an unfair mobilisation system, a high level of corruption and the Zelenskyy government in general.
Ukraine’s tactics in Donbas
Since October 2023, Ukraine has been slowly retreating from the frontline in Donbas, where Russia, despite heavy casualties, is advancing. Ukraine has lost a series of cities, towns and villages in the area by withdrawing its troops after hard-fought battles. One of the possible explanations is that it is a military tactic to exact casualties and losses on the Russian army and then retreat to cause maximum exhaustion. It has turned into a war of attrition with each side hoping to break the enemy’s capacity.
Involvement of other countries in the war in Ukraine
If North Korean troops are deployed to fight for Russia, Ukrainian armed forces will face even more pressure. Both Ukraine and South Korea claim that North Korean troops have been dispatched to train in Russia for this purpose. According to Carl Schuster, former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, these special forces troops will return with live battlefield and infiltration experience against an alerted combat opponent. That makes them very dangerous.
One of the pressing issues for Ukraine’s army is the difficulty of using long-range weapons provided by Western allies. The advantage of these weapons is that they can strike deep inside Russia, but permission is required to use them.
President Zelenskyy recently travelled to the US to urge President Biden to allow Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes inside Russia with US-supplied weapons. Both this and the issue of receiving permission from the UK to strike with Storm Shadow cruise missiles remain unresolved.
Zelenskyy suggests that the West is afraid of “escalation” with Moscow. Ukraine argues that Western leaders are effectively protecting Putin’s war machine while forcing the Ukrainian military to fight with one hand tied behind its back. Ukrainians also do not believe in Putin’s ‘red line’.
Conscription and corruption in Ukraine
Ukraine is also facing internal problems within the country which prevent it from putting up a successful defence.
Some Ukrainian men avoid conscription by hiding at their homes and paying bribes to officials. In response, the military resorts to force. On 11 October 2024, after a concert in Kyiv, a raid was conducted by the Territorial Center of Recruitment and Social Support. Men of fighting age had their documents checked and some were arrested and forcibly taken away. This caused a big division within Ukrainian society.
Some, particularly those who serve in the armed forces and their families, argue that such raids are justified because it is unfair some men are enjoying their lives while others are defending the country. They also say that soldiers suffering on the frontline for nearly three years are exhausted and need to be relieved. Those who criticise the action argue that the low motivation of Ukrainian men to join the defence forces must be fixed by the government by creating better conditions in the army.
Corruption also continues to keep Ukraine from standing strong. On 4 October 2024, the State Bureau of Investigation searched the home of two Ukrainian officials and found $6mn in cash, as well as forged documents to illegally register disabilities for men attempting to evade military service. On 22 October 2024, Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin resigned after reports that some prosecutors had falsely registered themselves as disabled.
An end to the war in Ukraine, and the question of NATO membership
Ukrainians want the war to end. And the theme of doing so through negotiation is ever more discussed. But the question is how? And on whose terms?
Ukraine requires peace based on international law, which protects its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. But President Putin demands that Ukraine recognise the Ukrainian territories currently occupied by his forces as Russian, that it withdraw from four regions claimed by Moscow and abandon its bid to join NATO.
One plan for ending the war is the ‘West Germany model’, or the offer of NATO membership in exchange for Ukraine giving up occupied territories to Russia. The plan provides for Ukraine to accept the temporary occupation of its territory but not to recognise it de jure. This would mean Ukraine could regain its land through diplomatic means in the future. Ukrainian NATO membership would prevent Russia from using a ceasefire to rearm and continue the war.
It may seem like a scenario which would satisfy Ukrainians because they don’t want to sacrifice themselves and their families in fighting to liberate all occupied territories. On 16 October 2024, Zelenskyy presented a “victory plan” to the Ukrainian parliament, in which the first condition was Ukraine joining NATO. However, the plan is unrealistic.
Problems with Zelenskyy’s victory plan
Firstly, it would require forcing Russia to agree to a ceasefire, and Russia refuses to back down from its intention to destroy all of Ukraine. That means it won’t agree to a ceasefire, particularly if one of the conditions is that Ukraine receives any type of protection from NATO.
Secondly, NATO membership of any new member has to be ratified by existing members, which is a big barrier. NATO members Hungary and Slovakia have pro-Russian governments who openly refuse to allow Ukrainian membership. The US and Germany also seem reluctant. While NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte has reaffirmed a commitment to accept Ukraine, he didn’t specify when and on what terms. Gerald Connolly, a member of NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly, claims that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” to NATO but it must restore its sovereignty first.
The plan would also create a division within Ukrainian society. Ukrainians who fled the Russian occupation and Crimean Tatars – an ethnic minority who have been waiting for the reunification of Crimea with Ukraine for 10 years – will not support such a plan. There is no doubt that they would feel abandoned and angry that their homes were given away and that people who remain living under Russian occupation where they suffer from human rights violations were forgotten. There is a risk that this could spark a civil disturbance and even a rebellion. Zelenskyy himself highlighted that Ukraine does not discuss joining NATO “in parts”.
Ukraine’s other options
So what are the other options for Ukraine?
If Ukraine and Russia manage to conclude a ceasefire without any specific terms which stop the fighting, this will certainly turn into a frozen conflict with another war eventually breaking out.
Some Ukrainians support a simple temporary freeze because they can use it to their advantage. It would give Ukraine a much-needed rest and time to rearm, build a stronger army, develop its economy and carry out internal reforms.
Some even assume that Russia won’t risk starting another war with a stronger Ukraine. Military commander Ihor Obolenskyi claims that for him, victory would mean Russia being too fearful to enter Ukraine. He says he is willing to wait 10 years “for Putin to die”.
Another Ukrainian soldier, Oleg Sentsov, predicts that Ukraine will face a long and difficult fight because negotiations won’t end the war. But he believes Ukraine will have its territories returned, and that Russia will collapse. This is because all empires built on conquest were eventually defeated and lost their occupied territories. Sentsov states that Ukraine should be preparing for a 10-year war and that its strategy should be to exhaust the enemy to the maximum degree. Doing so would exacerbate Russia’s internal problems and trigger its collapse, allowing Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to take back their lands.
When military commander Maksym Zhorin was asked in an interview if Ukraine would be able to regain its occupied territories, he replied: “We should at least stand, and not dream about the return of the territories.” He explains that he doesn’t see how it is possible looking at the resources which Ukraine has and advocates that Ukraine has to focus, for now, on keeping the territories that it has.
What does Ukraine’s future look like?
The current aim of all Ukrainians is survival. And they face a very difficult choice.
Capitulation means Russia takes over all of Ukraine. Ceding the occupied territories, whether officially or not, to persuade Russia to stop the fighting will help Ukraine survive. But without NATO membership or Western security guarantees – which require the consent of Russia, the US and Europe – lasting peace and security is not possible.
If Ukraine is left to live with a ‘forever war’, will it be strong enough to continue fighting? And will the West continue supporting it when it is already showing weakness and tiredness?
As a Ukrainian, everything I have written about in this article has made me very anxious. But it won’t break my belief that victory and peace will come to Ukraine. I want the war to end to stop the murder of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. I want people to live under the Ukrainian flag in all of Ukraine and to be able to return to their homes.
I don’t know what Ukraine will have to go through to win and how long it will take, but my family and I hope to see it. And even if the war and the occupation last 20 years, I will remain patient and supportive of Ukraine.
I am only afraid of what other Ukrainians will do, whether other people around the world will keep supporting us and, most of all, whether there will be a country left to support.
