As much as I wish it weren’t true, there is a fundamental difference that Starmer can’t “bridge”, no matter how noble his aims.
It is this: the Europeans (including the UK) see Ukrainian security as European security. They are the same. The US (under the current leadership) views Ukraine as a transaction in which they favour the Russians over the Ukrainians.
Evidence abounds for this:
- The difference between how Starmer and Zelenskyy were received at the White House.
- US leaders repeating Russian talking points.
- US voting with Russia at UN.
- US standing down its offensive cyber capability vis a vis Russia.
I could go on, but fundamentally, there is nothing there to bridge.
The US’s relationship with Europe has changed
The world has fundamentally changed, and the US, while apparently being happy to have a close relationship with the UK, is much less willing to have a close relationship with Europe and is actually antagonistic towards Ukraine.
However, Europe, the UK and Ukraine have indivisible security. The US does not see it that way, and no amount of bridging will get us there.
Starmer, despite having a good few days doing what he should be doing (ie securing the US-UK relationship), is suffering from a severe lack of imagination in seeing that the world has changed and America is not interested in European security enough for us to rely on them.
His lines about bridging between Europe and America are being written for him by officials – this is what the UK has been saying for decades.
The fact that we are still saying it at the same time as a paltry increase in defence while at the same time talking about a generational turning point shows that it is Starmer that is being “fundamentally unserious” (to use his own phrase in the House yesterday).
Europe must have its own military power
Here is what getting serious looks like:
- 3% of defence (as a floor).
- Army of 100,000.
- Separate out core US-UK intelligence/nuclear/satellites/etc. relationship from.
- European collective defence which should be done by Europeans.
And zooming out:
Getting serious means the UK leading Europe into becoming a military power. The next 20-30 years of multi-polarity will be pretty painful if Europe doesn’t have its own military power to stop it being coerced by others, including the US, by the way.
And if you don’t think that the US withdrawing military aid from Ukraine is not the US coercing Europe militarily, you are living in a dream world. Starmer and the government need to fundamentally accept that the world has changed and imagine what a new world will look like. If they could do that, they might see it’s a wonderful opportunity for the UK to lead Europe into becoming a military power.
I can think of no greater legacy.
