In my last article, I suggested a reformed NATO should still retain a secondary role in the Indo-Pacific. Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine has taken on a new dimension with North Korean troops fighting alongside Russians on the front line. Asia is now directly involved in conflict in Europe. What is Europe’s response?
International Institute for Strategic Studies
The IISS is a research institute that provides objective information on military, geopolitical and geoeconomic developments that could lead to conflict. Its core mission is to help “the world understand and address global security challenges”, ranging from military coercion to global warming.
Emmanuel Macron, President of France, has been visiting south-east Asia in recent weeks, due to the region’s strategic importance amid current uncertainties on global supply chains and trade. He perceives a need for Europe and independent countries of the region to avoid picking sides between China and the USA and seek coalitions to address the new challenges. After meetings with the Indonesian president and prime minister of Singapore, he was invited to give the keynote speech to the IISS annual summit in Singapore on 30 May.
The summit agenda, attended by world leaders, diplomats and top defence officials, focused on China’s growing assertiveness, the global impact of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the flare-ups of conflicts in Asia.
He opened his speech by calling for the building of “new coalitions” between European and Asian countries, to help “reset” a new rules-based global order amid an increasing risk of nuclear proliferation and growing divisions between the US and China. He also urged China to stop its ally, North Korea, from sending forces to help Russia’s war in Ukraine if it wanted to avoid NATO expanding its role in Asia. He advocated that the time had come for countries capable of acting together to give themselves every means to defuse the risk of trade and territorial disputes.
US representative remarks to IISS
Pete Hegseth, US Defence Secretary, was scheduled to give the US position on 31 May, the second day of the summit. But, as Macron was giving the keynote speech, Trump threw another curveball into his trade war with China by accusing them, on social media, of violating an agreement to roll back triple digit tariffs they imposed on each other and announced a worldwide 50% tariff on steel and aluminium.
Hegseth followed up by saying the US was “reorienting toward deterring aggression by communist China” and warned the Chinese military was building the capabilities to invade Taiwan and “rehearsing for the real deal”. He added that China is “credibly preparing” to use military force to upend the balance of power in Asia, vowing the United States was “here to stay” in the Indo-Pacific region.
China accused Hegseth of making “vilifying remarks”. The speech was considered “very unfriendly” and “very confrontational”. It suggested that Washington was applying double standards in demanding Beijing respect its neighbours while at the same time bullying Canada and Greenland. Macron’s appeal to offer open diplomatic dialogue to reduce tensions appears to have won the day.
European global security
As I write, the international Carrier Strike Force CSG25, led by HMS Prince of Wales, has passed through the Suez Canal and is transiting the Red Sea on the next stage of its eight month deployment. RFA Tidespring took a different route around South Africa and is now heading north to rejoin them. Apart from the many exercises it will conduct in the region, it will also use port visits as opportunities for industry to discuss potential trade deals.
The timing of the events I describe here, compared with the recent UK/US agreement on continued use of Diego Garcia, the largest of about 60 islands that form the Chagos Archipelago in the central Indian Ocean, should not go unnoticed. I find there is much misunderstanding on this location, not least due to its classified facilities.
First, Diego Garcia is not an island like Majorca or Corfu. It is a coral atoll covering 67 square miles, of which 46 are a lagoon, 10 are dry land, plus some peripheral reefs. It is 40 miles north to south and seven miles wide.
Second, the dry land varies from a few hundred yards wide to 1.5 miles, with just enough space for two 12,000 foot parallel runways. These can take B52 conventional and B2 stealth bombers and were last used after 9/11 against Afghanistan. They are in reach of Iran and threats to western Ukraine.
Its strategic significance to the USA is like that of Guam in the western Pacific.
Where next?
The good news is that in less than four years, at most, Trump will no longer be POTUS, and I will wager that JD Vance has as much chance at being the next president as Taylor Swift. China knows that and can bide its time. Putin will become more anxious for success and is the immediate threat.
The UK Strategic Defence Review document has recently been published. In my next article I will comment on the review and how it interplays with decisions to be made at the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on 24 to 26 June.
I will also give an update on whether open discussions on Indo-Pacific tensions between China and the USA are being defused, and how CSG25 activities are demonstrating Europe’s right to exercise with local allies without antagonising other local nations’ strategic interests. Much will depend on whether Trump sees Europe’s activities as supporting his stated aim to seek peace wherever possible.
