On 24 August, Ukraine celebrated 35 years of independence from the Soviet Union. For 12 of those years, the country has been fighting Russia for its existence. Ukraine is heading for a hard winter, with electricity blackouts, heating cutbacks and possibly even food shortages. The most important tasks for the Ukrainian government and for European countries now are to ensure that Ukraine has a strong air defence and that Russia is facing strong and effective sanctions.
Russian attacks
Russia continues to commit war crimes by launching missile and drone attacks, causing deaths and injuries to Ukrainian people.
In July, 377 civilians were killed by Russian attacks. This was labelled as the deadliest month of the war since April 2022.
On 20 August, a Russian attack on Kyiv resulted in the deaths of 17 people, more than 40 people receiving injuries, and damage to blocks of flats, warehouses, a children’s hospital and a school.
On 21 August, Russia attacked a shopping centre in another Ukrainian city, Kriviy Rih. Sixteen people were killed, 130 were injured, and 4 are missing.
On 27 August, Kyiv faced an attack that lasted for several hours. On 28 August, an attack on a warehouse that was storing weapons resulted in the deaths of 37 people and injuries to another 42. There are questions over why the ammunition was stored close to residential buildings, and Ukrainian prosecutors have already opened an investigation, but this does not absolve Russia of responsibility for the attack on Ukraine.
Energy infrastructure at risk
Now that autumn has come and winter is approaching, Russia will be striking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with new force, which will cause blackouts and loss of heating, as well as damage to locations that may result in food and water supply disruptions.
This reveals what a huge role air defence plays in protecting civilians during war when the enemy does not have enough force and resources to completely ‘conquer’ the country but instead tries to create conditions in which life becomes unbearable. The enemy aims to cause deaths and injuries through missiles and drones, inflicting as much damage as possible with the aim of breaking people’s morale, taking away faith in their capacities to defend themselves and forcing them into capitulation. That’s why there is also a huge role for trust in government and state institutions, and practical actions to strengthen defence, so that people do not feel they have been abandoned.
Ukraine’s air defence and Patriot missiles
The main air defence that Ukrainian Air Forces have been using to strike down Russian ballistic missiles is the Patriot system.
Briefly, the system detects, tracks and engages unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones), Cruise missiles, and short-range or tactical ballistic missiles. It has a radar set and missile launchers, and Patriot missiles are needed to use it.
Ukraine has a Patriot launcher, but it is running low on missiles. The war in Iran has had an impact; the Gulf states have been using a huge number of missiles that could have been used by Ukraine against Russian ballistic missiles.
There have been discussions between the US and Ukraine about giving Ukraine permission to produce Patriot interceptors domestically under a licence, but President Trump has refused to conclude such an agreement. Donald Trump has repeatedly demonstrated a complete lack of interest in either Ukraine’s survival or Europe’s security. While the US remains one of the strongest NATO members and Europe’s ally, the Trump administration’s neglect is forcing Europe to search for self-reliant and innovative solutions. It is a time when Ukraine and all European countries are asking themselves: ‘What do we have of our own?’ and ‘What can we do and produce ourselves?’
Ukraine’s and Europe’s domestic manufacturing of air defence
Ukraine is turning to its allies in Europe for help with air defence, but Europe is in a difficult position too. European countries understand the necessity to help Ukraine, but they are cautious about jeopardising their own defence needs.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has said that during negotiations about air defence, they ‘are literally fighting for every missile’.
On 24 August, the EU Commission approved a donation of €6.1bn to Ukraine for the country’s defence, and this funding will cover air and missile defence systems. However, it remains in question whether this is a sufficient amount to help Ukraine to strike down Russian missiles, and on what systems the funding will be spent.
On 26 August, President Zelensky announced that Ukraine had received “a small number of US-made Patriot interceptors” and highlighted that Ukraine needs 5% of US Patriot production, while it currently has only 1%. On 27 August, it was reported that the latest military package from Italy will include SAMP/T systems (mobile surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems developed as a joint Franco-Italian project) and additional air defence missiles.
On 8 September, the UK stepped in, supporting Ukraine’s air defence with a commitment of £100m. On 9 September, the European Commission agreed to provide €3.2bn to Ukraine for the production of Patriot interceptor missiles. While this support is welcome news for Ukraine, there remain questions about the production of the necessary air defence missiles and to what extent Ukraine will be equipped to fight off Russian missile attacks.
Ukraine’s own air defence
Additionally, Ukraine has started developing its own air defence. Ukraine also has plans to produce its own anti-ballistic system, Freyja, which is intended to be ‘a low-cost alternative to Patriot’, and several European countries have agreed to contribute to the project. It should be ready within the first half of next year.
The other possible solutions for Ukraine are to use drones to attack Russian missile launchers or to strike the factories producing ballistic missiles in Russia.
Merely having a strong air defence during such wars is not sufficient. Russia has its locations where these missiles and drones are produced and stored. Under international law, Ukraine has the right to self-defence and has an absolute right to conduct strikes on military sites or on locations that are contributing in some way to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. That’s why Ukraine and Europe should be armed with ballistic missiles and drones to conduct such strikes.
The EU and sanctions on Russia
While military aid to Ukraine remains essential, economic pressure on Russia to block the financing for its military machine also remains significant.
On 23 July, the European Council adopted the 21st package of sanctions against Russia. However, one of the most significant issues was seafood imports from Russia. A full ban on fish products from Russia was proposed, but due to resistance from Germany, Poland and Portugal, seafood was dropped from the package.
On 17 August, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, announced that this autumn, the EU is planning to impose more ‘far-reaching’ sanctions against Russia. The latest package was ‘watered down’ to protect national economic interests; Greece received an exemption from an EU-wide ban on the shipment of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). On the same day, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister called on the EU to sanction the Russian state nuclear company Rosatom.
A rift over sanctions
Currently, there is a rift over the extension of the sanctions already in place. France is demanding the removal of an oligarch, Alisher Usmanov, from the sanctions blacklist, while other EU members are cautious that this will create a precedent, following which other EU members will start demanding the removal of other oligarchs from the blacklist. There must be an understanding among EU members about the importance of unity and cooperation in security matters, and that Russian oligarchs must not be allowed to make use of their wealth and enjoy a luxurious life in Europe.
Decision time for the EU
This is the time when Europe must finally decide which it values more: its own economy, with the continuation of the genocide of Ukrainians by Russia and with the risk of facing the disastrous consequences of the defeat of Ukraine, or the lives of Ukrainian people, including children, and the existence of Ukraine as an independent, sovereign and democratic country. Europe must not get this choice wrong.
This winter, with freezing weather and snowfall, Ukraine will be facing a tough period in its fight for survival. The support of its allies must not waver or reduce. They must stand with Ukraine with all possible strength, courage and determination to force Russia to stop the war and to help Ukraine to survive the coming winter.
Air defence, missile and drone production, and economic sanctions on Russia must be the priority for Ukraine and its European allies.
