Considering global conflict from Queensland
It is early morning of the first day after I arrive from Spain, via England and Singapore, to stay with my twin daughters and families for Christmas and New Year. While making the morning tea, I noticed a female sunbird fly over the rear garden fence and into the covered patio. It hangs upside down on a fan with its head facing the nest where it lays its eggs each year. The nest is made in a pod-shaped appendage of a plant in, and hanging below, a flower basket.
It doesn’t fly to the nest until it is assured it won’t attract predators. Having checked that its eggs are safe, it joins its partner, and they fly off together. This process is repeated throughout the day, even after dusk falls.
I can’t help but compare this patient, focused effort of nature to ensure the survival of its species with the separate, but intimately linked, aggressive armed conflict between factions of humanity that are causing the Middle East to burn, with no thought to the risk to the very survival of our own species.
Australia’s geopolitical location – the centre of a conflict to come?
Donald Trump’s second presidential term is set to focus its foreign policy on contesting the growing power of China in the Indo-Pacific region. He will also demand that Europe steps up its commitment to the defence of former NATO areas of operation. Trump’s Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, sees China as “the threat that will define this century”.
Australia is at the centre of the defining geopolitical power contest of this era. A popular sentiment in the Australian media is that “America needs us as much as we need America”. But how does the latest Australian Defence Review and the commitment from the Anthony Albanese government measure up to the challenge of China’s aggressive assertion of its territorial claims at sea?
If China’s military moved to seize Taiwan and neutralise Western allies Japan and the Philippines, nothing could stop them from dominating the sea lanes that carry the bulk of Australian foreign trade goods. Australia (a large country with a population of only 27 million) spends 2% of its GDP on defence. Trump is likely to demand this be raised to 3%. The United States Navy is already seeking the acquisition of 1,000 drones to help protect Taiwan against invasion.
Australian Defence Strategy Review 2023
The Defence Review considers the tripartite AUKUS partnership to invest in conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines to be one of the most ambitious defence projects in modern history. HMAS Stirling in Western Australia is destined to become a key allied submarine base. A future base is to be established on the east coast. The Northern Territory are viewed as a key region for expansion as a forward operating base and logistics and training hub for the Australian Defence Forces (ADF) and its allies.
There is already an annual rotation of 2,500 US marines to Northern Australia and plans for six B-52 bombers at RAAF Tindal. A new maritime project in Darwin will provide supply and maintenance facilities for UK, European and Indian patrol ships. The US Army plans to pre-position equipment for troops in Victoria and Queensland. Watercraft will be stationed in Queensland and the Northern Territory. Japan will undertake joint exercises of its Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade with Australian and US forces. It will also conduct rotation and joint exercises of its F-35A Joint Strike Fighters.
The existing Five Eyes intelligence agreement between Australia, the UK, USA, Canada and New Zealand for intelligence gathering, secure communications and early warning surveillance will play an expanded role in the Northern Territory due to the greater scope and frequency of joint ops in the area. It will also allow citizens of member states to join the ADF.
Enhanced ADF weapons capability
The ADF will develop the ability to precisely strike long-range targets and manufacture munitions in Australia. Examples given in the Defence Review are vehicle-mounted HIMARS (High Mobility Armed Rocket System) for land, with long-range maritime strikes and upgrades to F-35A new aircraft to fit long-range JSM (Joint Strike Missiles), ordered by Australia in August 2024. These are to be manufactured in the country in partnership with Kongsberg of Norway, with deliveries starting in 2027.
This aligns with the ADF’s aim to rapidly translate new technologies into ADF capability, in close partnership with Australian industry. Greater integration of the land, sea and maritime domains is an ongoing process. But extra capability now needs to be developed for cyber warfare and space domain threats.
Meanwhile, the Middle East burns
Since the mid-20th century, the Middle East has been a hotspot of volatility, with Israel engaging in wars and facing threats from militias like Hamas and Hezbollah. Conflicts have involved regional and global powers, leading to widespread instability and violence. The undercurrent in all these conflicts is the escalating tension between the United States and Iran.
Israel, under Netanyahu, continues the relentless bombing of Northern Gaza and Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon with no apparent concern for the collateral damage to the local populations. Its special forces also destroyed a key weapons manufacturing facility in Syria. People around the world have become increasingly concerned that Netanyahu will stop at nothing to completely eradicate his opponents, including all factions sponsored by Iran. Street protests continue worldwide. In Melbourne, Australia a synagogue is firebombed and Prime Minister Albanese is castigated for his inaction to safeguard its Jewish population. But nobody expected the game-changing event that is now having a profound effect on the politics of the whole region.
Blitzkrieg in Syria
Rebels in the northwest of Syria began a rapid advance south on 27 November 2024, capturing the city of Aleppo, then Hama and Homs. Russia scrambled its aircraft at Khmeimin air base in Syria to strike the rebels and Iran offered support. Within 11 days the rebels reached Damascus and stormed President Bashar al Assad’s palace to find that he and his English wife had fled to Moscow. 54 years of tyrannical rule by him and his father had ended. In 2011 Assad brutally subdued an uprising with the use of chemical weapons. Thousands fled the country.
Is conflict on the horizon between HTS and minority groups?
The largest rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is led by Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani), an ex-member of al-Qaida. Will he be pragmatic enough to ensure any temporary government gives hope to the patchwork quilt of Islamic, Christian, Kurdish and other sects that form Syrian society? The Alawite sect, especially, now lives in fear of retribution and persecution by HTS.
Alawites split from Shia Islam in the 9th century and members, including Bashar al-Assad, are considered ‘disbelievers’ by Shias and Sunnis. Alawites are now in fear of retribution and persecution as revenge for their support of al-Assad’s regime.
Turkey and Russia’s role in the Syrian conflict
Turkey’s role in facilitating the uprising is questionable due to its long-standing desire for victory over Kurdish forces on its borders. The international community has failed the Kurds since they were offered their own Kurdistan after World War 1 which never materialised. In response to the uprising, Israel attacked the Syrian Navy in the Minet el-Beida bay and off the Port of Latakia. It also bombed chemical and biological weapon sites to prevent them from falling into terrorist hands.
Russia is a major loser as it stands to relinquish the port of Tartus on the eastern Mediterranean coast that it has been using to supply its activities in Africa. Its ships, which carry long-range missiles, were moved 8kms west of the port out of danger’s way. They and ground forces are trying to seek alternative facilities in Libya and redeployment of their air combat aircraft is uncertain.
Shared hopes for humanity
The more I travel, the more I realise that most of humanity has the same hopes for the future. What matters most to Australian families now is the rising cost of their weekly housekeeping bill, the rising cost of houses that the 30s age group can’t afford and the decisions they must make. The current Labor government’s target to reduce immigration appears not to address the need of the country to increase and foster the number of people of working age. The next Australian election between Labor and the Liberal Party Coalition of Peter Dutton will be hard fought and may open an opportunity for a new centrist contender.
I will leave you with a belated New Year message that says maybe it’s up to the rest of us to make peace happen.
