Croatian election turn out
Politicians have been thinking about how turnout can be raised in this year of numerous upcoming national elections. Croatia had an idea of how to lure more citizens to the polling stations. The result was that long queues formed in front of the polling stations. The government simply moved the election day from a traditional Sunday to a Wednesday and, as an incentive, released everyone from school or work.
This EU member country usually has one of the lowest turnouts in Europe. In 2020, only 46.9% of the electorate voted. But this year, according to the election commission, 24.18% had already voted by 11:30am. In the two previous elections, the value at the same time was only 18%.
The election campaign
This year’s election campaign in Croatia was short but brutal, with a historically unique constellation: the challenger of the government was Croatia’s President Zoran Milanović. The Social Democrat Milanović announced that he wanted to become prime minister. Milanović is a kind of Donald Trump of Croatia and wanted to overtake the conservative PM Andrej Plenković of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) from the right. His loud oratory and his unrestrained followers had a decomposing effect on the political discourse within Croatia. He is another top European politician who blinks kindly to Russia and rages à la Viktor Orbán against migrants.
There has been a brutal campaign with two years of intense verbal sparring between Milanović and Plenković. As the elections came closer, the focus shifted away from political to personal animosities. Milanović’s transformation from a relatively conventional politician to a media spectacle included hurling coarse language at his political opponents. He called Plenković a “fire-spewing badger” who is remotely controlled by Brussels.
“He was a left-liberal politician, while now he has edged closer to becoming a Balkan Trump character, to the point that he’s announced he would challenge the veracity of election results if his party doesn’t win the elections”, said Žarko Puhovski, a political analyst and public intellectual.
Public opinion
However, according to opinion polls, Milanović has become the most popular politician in a country desperate for change. This is not surprising after several years of crisis due to earthquakes, the economic fallout of the Ukraine-Russia war, and a pandemic-induced downturn, particularly challenging for a tourism-reliant country.
Croatia was brought to the brink of a constitutional crisis by the fact that Milanović had not yet completed the presidency cycle when he announced that he wanted to run for head of government. The constitutional court had prohibited the president from campaigning. However, despite the ban, Milanović was actively but unofficially engaged in the election campaign and he did not hide his intentions in any interview.
“The fundamental principles of the constitution have been violated, wherein the head of state is strictly non-partisan”, explained Puhovski, underscoring that the president’s role is to uphold a balance between state institutions and not leverage his position to pursue the highest office in the country, as Milanović did.
Croatian Election results
The turnout reached historic highs, with more than 50% of the country’s over 3.7 million eligible voters casting ballots by 4:30pm. According to results published by the central election commission, with over 99% of votes counted, the ruling right-wing conservative prime minister Plenković secured 61 seats in the Croatian Sabor (Parliament), while the Social Democrats were projected to garner 42 seats.
With neither securing the required majority of 76 seats in the 151-seat parliament, the parties will have to enter coalitions with a choice between either right-wing or left-wing parties that passed the minimum threshold. The post-election coalitions that will be negotiated in the coming days will form the majority that will elect the prime minister and members of the government.
Options for coalitions
According to Politico, “The SDP’s most natural ally appears to be the leftist green Možemo! (We can!) coalition, currently holding the fourth position. Still, Možemo!’s 10 seats alone wouldn’t suffice for a majority, even when including ethnic minority seats. It could make a minority government an option.”
The other possibility for a coalition is the nationalist hard-right Homeland Movement, which came third in the election. However, they ruled out any collaboration with Plencović or Milanoviç during the election campaign. Možemo! would also most likely oppose a coalition with them or the Social Democrats because of their opposition to partnering with right-wing and far-right parties.
What Croatian alliance is best?
According to Balkan Insight, Plenković said following the election result that the new government should be formed by the winner of the election, meaning his party, the HDZ. In his speech, he also attacked Milanović’s “flagrant violation of the Constitution”.
“There is a big difference between us and other political parties, especially those that tonight again articulated a kind of hate speech against the HDZ … I invite all those parties that have won the trust of Croatian citizens, and do not show this kind of a priori exclusivity, like those who we defeated by almost 20 points”.
But Sandra Bencic from Mozemo! said it was still possible to keep the HDZ from power. She thought the population wanted to be free from the corrupt past government.
Politico writes, “Voters may have leaned toward supporting the SDP due to accusations of widespread corruption within the HDZ government. With a staggering 30 ministers having resigned for corruption during their mandate, the electorate likely sought a clean break from the tainted legacy of the previous administration.”
“Usually, right-wing parties in Croatia would be deemed more hysterical around elections and the left-wing parties would be the rational ones. This time, their roles were switched”, according to political analyst Žarko Puhovski.
A divided Europe is disastrous
Whatever alliance will form the Croatian government, the stark divisions in other European countries are mirrored in Croatia too: “These elections were marked by unprecedented divisions among the electorate, and there has never been less political content and more fighting between the main candidates in the elections”, Puhovski said.
Local media have likened the rapid surge in Milanović’s popularity and his possible return to the premiership to a “Slovak scenario”, drawing parallels to Robert Fico’s recent re-election in Bratislava. Both espouse pro-Russian stances and oppose the bloc’s unified policy on Ukraine.
With Orbán fuelling division with his pro-Russian rhetoric, the upcoming June EU elections are facing challenges at a time when unity is especially vital – but numerous member states are facing divisions stirred up by populist politicians within their own countries.
Supporting the EU’s often unpopular decisions will lose them support at home. The climate crisis, the growing need to care for refugees from the impact of wars and climatic changes, in addition to the fallout of the war next to its borders will consume resources. It needs political will by member states to put their own internal popularity at risk to enable united action for long-term sustainable peace.
If Trump becomes POTUS again, a powerful Europe is even more important. Once the US reduces its support for NATO and European defence, the EU has to build up its own protective measures. Will European governments manage to overcome their divisions to act decisively to protect us from the impending disaster of water, food, energy and medical shortages, and the spreading of war?
