Agent Orange, a defoliant sprayed by US forces during the Vietnam War, devastated the environment and the people exposed to it. Another orange-coloured horror, Donald J Trump, has won a new term as US president and will no doubt have a similar effect, both at home in the USA and worldwide. The US ended up losing the Vietnam War and this may well foreshadow the outcome of another divisive leadership term.
A calamity revisited
The re-election of Trump has thrown liberal thinkers in America and Europe into a blind panic. You can almost hear the sounds of horses’ hooves and the squeals of axles as the wagons begin to circle Europe. We know exactly what to expect from Trump from his calamitous last term of office. As Calvin Coolidge famously remarked about his successor Herbert Hoover, “For six years that man has given me unsolicited advice – all of it bad.”
Already there are some in the president-elect’s office, who are doing a Hoover in giving Britain dubious advice over trade deals. Trump adviser Stephen Moore has urged the UK to dump the “socialist EU” and align with the “free trade” US – a suggestion rife with irony given the protectionist stance of Trump’s administration.
This is almost a perfect reversal of what happened in 1932, when a protectionist President Hoover lost an election to the free trade, new deal, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The USA periodically reverts to isolationism as a means of calming the strongly nativist thinking of many within its population. A country built on immigration seeks to pull down the shutters on immigration, supposedly to protect the jobs and incomes of blue-collar workers. This approach generally has failed. Low-pay, labour-intensive work remains unattractive to native workers, who want highly-paid, skilled or semi-skilled work rather than fruit picking or social care.
Does “I’m backing Britain” mean rekindling the Entente Cordiale with Europe?
Britain must tread a careful line between becoming dependent on American goodwill and rekindling its partnership with the EU. If, as expected, Trump initiates a trade war, imposing steep tariffs on Chinese imports (60% or even 200% is being rumoured) and milder tariffs (20%+) on European goods, Britain could be driven back into the arms of Europe. Geography reinforces this: Europe is only 22 miles away and is our largest trading area, while the US lies 3,000 miles across the Atlantic.
Although the US is Britain’s biggest single trading partner, this relationship is concentrated in services and high-value goods, like Scotch whisky, aerospace and tech. A US trade barrier is not insurmountable. The last time Trump imposed tariffs on British imports, trade actually grew. The EU, for all its failings, offers far more stability than the Trump-led US. Agreements with the EU will be honoured, but Trump’s unpredictable nature casts doubts over long-term agreements.
The risk of dealing with the US in its imminent isolationist mood is high and Trump’s friendliness with Vladimir Putin is unsettling. We cannot overturn Brexit just because of Trump, but we can rejoin the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and attempt to negotiate a more flexible deal on the conditions of membership, addressing areas such as the free movement of people.
NATO, climate change and new alliances
Key global concerns – NATO, the Paris Agreement on climate change and defence spending – add complexity to Britain’s position in a new Trump era, which may only be the first in a series of inward-looking presidencies if the US continues on the path he is likely to follow.
The war with Ukraine has shown that while members of NATO bicker and dither, autocrats like Putin prosper. History teaches us that early, large-scale intervention delivers long-term benefits, and it is in our interests to speak softly and carry a big stick, with the resolution to use it if necessary. We can cooperate with Russia, but not at the expense of Ukraine. This would embolden Putin’s ambitions in the Baltic states, Finland and Poland.
We must agree to spend more on defence and lift the burden, at least in Europe, from the US, and in doing so, secure our borders. Perhaps Trump’s legitimate complaint that the US is carrying an unfair burden on defence will be our salvation and is part of taking back control.
The special relationship: myth or reality?
The so-called ‘special relationship’ of Britain with the US is something that Americans seem largely unaware of. While it is often mentioned by politicians in Britain, the sentiment is seldom reciprocated in the USA. Originating in the Second World War, the concept was championed by Churchill but has never really been recognised by succeeding presidents. Even during the Falklands war, Thatcher had to twist the arms of the Reagan administration for military support. Trump, whose outlook may change daily, will make this relationship even less reliable.
A trade deal with the US, to the exclusion of the EU, would be extremely unpopular at home, because its terms would be based on ‘America first’ and bring compromises on food standards, healthcare and worker protections. This would mean chlorinated chicken, US health companies, and less social protection for employees, at the very least. In contrast, the EU’s rule and consensus-driven approach, while cumbersome, offers stability and enforceable agreements.
Europeans first and foremost
For good or ill, we are Europeans, even if there are noisy recusants who think otherwise, and it is for that reason I predict that if push comes to shove, Britain will jump towards Europe and away from the USA. Aligning with Europe may cause the US administration to add Britain to its list of enemies because Trump has a famously thin skin and most of his adherents are equally mercurial. Unlike the last Trump presidency, there are now few mainstream republican moderates to persuade a president known for his off-the-field ideas to return to sense and sensibility. It is highly likely that Trump will become more wayward and will double down if things don’t go as planned.
Navigating the upcoming storm
A second Trump presidency will likely lead to increased isolationism and erratic policymaking. His team will be highly prone to disputes and fallings out, further disrupting the smooth working of the US government. Trying to deal with such a beast will be like riding a bucking bronco and maybe just as painful. It may be that China and Iran will take the full force of Trump’s invective and attention, leaving Britain and Europe to cautiously sail their own course, but who knows? Britain and Europe will need to tread cautiously with the new Trump presidency.
As has been said many times before, we live in interesting times.
