The first thing you should understand is that, with a certain number of rare exceptions, anyone putting themselves forward for election 2024 should on no account be elected. The last 14 years have shown this statement to be true following the exposure of a series of lies, corruption, incompetence, sexism, bullying, racism, antisemitism, stupidity, misogyny, and tractor porn watching in the House of Parliament.
The Mother of Parliaments has had its rogues and charlatans in the past, such as David Lloyd George, Horatio Bottomley, Jimmy Thomas, Robert Maxwell and John Stonehouse, but some of these can at least point to successes they had achieved. The current crop of miscreants can show very little on the positive side.
The Prime Minister’s election announcement surprised many, especially those in his own party who thought that the government would continue until the autumn or possibly January 2025. There is now legislation lost, possibly never to see royal assent, and MPs and ministers have stood down, some at the last minute.
Sunak, the Mr Bean of British politics
Rishi Sunak is fast becoming the Mr Bean of British politics as every day brings forth yet another misstep. In the first three weeks of this general election campaign, we have seen:
- Sunak’s watery general election announcement, where he stood there and doggedly made his speech in a cloudburst. Did no one think of handing him an umbrella?
- An election call at a warehouse, which turned out to be well stocked with Conservative councillors posing as employees.
- An election visit to Wales where Sunak asked his audience if they were looking forward to the Euro 2024 football tournament (Wales was eliminated in the qualifying rounds).
- MPs and cabinet ministers jumping ship at an alarming rate leaving a large number of constituencies without Conservative candidates. The party has had to impose candidates quickly on some unhappy local party organisations such as when party chairman Richard Holden, was parachuted into the ‘safe’ constituency of Basildon and Billericay.
- Square-bashing at Catterick for 18-year-olds as national service is to be reintroduced after a 60-year hiatus. This is a real vote-winner guaranteed to increase the number of younger Conservative voters. Have the Conservatives not realised that their base support is ageing and therefore will reduce in numbers?
- The Tories’ £2,000 tax claim on Labour’s spending commitments collapsing into a number of counter-accusations and a letter from Treasury officials saying that the Tory calculations were not ‘signed off’ by them despite the Conservatives still making the allegation in their election broadcast. An odd way to promote your offer by highlighting the opposition’s big deal.
- Sunak experiencing a new small boat problem when the Lib Dems photobombed his photo call in Oxfordshire. I think the Tories may have a mole in their midst as this aquatic stunt would have taken prior knowledge and time to plan it.
- Craig Williams facing an investigation when he was caught gambling on the date of the general election before the date was announced. Being a close aide of the PM, he might just have had inside knowledge. The Tory party truly is the gift that keeps on giving.
- Then of course, we have Sunak’s D-Day debacle. It is hard to fathom what thought process went through the PM’s mind when he returned to do a TV interview part way through the D-Day commemorations, leaving Lord Cameron to officiate in his place. The PM has been overwhelmed by criticism, so much so that Sunak refused to talk to the media over the weekend after this event. The ignominy over this almighty public relations failure may well dog the Conservatives’ election campaign until 4 July 2024.
Farage, the clown of Clacton
We now proceed to the clown of Clacton and his theatrical Reform Party Ltd. Nigel Farage, in one of his many opportunistic reversals, has decided to stand for Clacton in Essex because he believes this constituency, with its rundown high street and high Leave vote, will return him to parliament on the eighth attempt. Overseas visitors to this country should please note that the traditional way to greet Mr Farage is to say hello, and not to throw an expensive milkshake over his head.
Reform is a ragbag of anger, misogyny, and sometimes ill-disguised racism wrapped up within a concern over immigration, an issue that needs to be tackled fairly and squarely so that the UK acts humanely towards those seeking safety on our shores. It would be a lot easier if our economy worked efficiently and effectively in delivering economic dividends to all, not just a few, because there is no doubt that well-founded economic resentment in deprived areas has led to a blame culture in which immigration is the handy-sized Aunt Sally.
Farage seems content in allowing the media to roust out the mad, sad and bad within Reform’s ranks. So far, the score is:
- Two old racists exposed by Channel 4 in the first week.
- Ian Gribben, Reform candidate for Bexhill and Battle stated that Britain should have stayed neutral in the Second World War.
- Grant StClair-Armstrong, whose past has caught up with him after social media posts attributed to him were exposed by The Times according to the BBC, in which he encouraged people to vote for the BNP, proposed the torture of Tony Blair and Alastair Campbell, plus the usual misogyny and racism. I am sure several more will be found wanting good sense and kindness to others.
Farage seems content for the media to scrutinise his troops because it does not seem to deflect from Reform gaining ground in the polls to the point that he says that he is now leader of the opposition after a poll put Reform ahead of the Conservatives. If the spotlight is on him, Reform’s policies won’t be scrutinised too heavily.
Tactical mistakes
The LibDems seem to be pursuing a more targeted approach by concentrating their efforts where they have strong local support and can claim to be the likely winner if other voters use their vote tactically. There is even a StopTheTories website to advise on tactical voting which may garner the LibDems more seats.
All in all, this is an election slog-fest where it appears that the PM has made a strategic blunder in going early, and a series of tactical mistakes along the way. JK Galbraith, the noted economist, once said
“If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.”
He also said:
“Politics is the art of choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable.”
And so it is here.
Political pundits have tried to find a resonance between this election and previous elections, but really it only rhymes with parts of the past. Starmer is a rerun of Henry Campbell-Bannerman’s tactics of letting the Tories destroy themselves over Empire free trade (protection) in 1906, rather than a rerun of 1945 or 1997.
If the Conservatives lose the election, they have done so by their own hand, because of the calibre of their prime ministers, ministers, and supporters. In the past, Conservative leaders have lost elections and remained in post. Baldwin lost in 1923 and 1929, Churchill lost in 1945, Heath in 1966, but I am afraid Sunak will not be so lucky.
As for a supermajority, the Conservatives seem to have forgotten that the Conservative-dominated supermajority ‘National’ government was in office from 1931 to 1945, and no one said then it was somehow damaging to the constitution or democracy.
Harold Wilson may have been misquoted when he was attributed with saying that a week is a long time in politics, but the next two weeks are going to seem like an eternity to many.
