By Philippe Bassett
The Liberal Democrats website helpfully lists the required swing from Conservative in each target seat to gain vital wins to strengthen their Westminster group of MPs. Twelve of their top target seats are in Surrey.
The lowest swing needed (0.64%) is in Carshalton and Wallington (technically a London Borough but still regarded by most as historically part of Surrey), currently occupied by Elliot Colburn. Next up, at 2.17%, is Esher and Walton, the seat occupied currently by Dominic Raab with a slim majority of just over 2,700 (he is standing down in any case). This is followed by Guildford at 2.84%, with Angela Richardson possibly facing the order of the boot. Another worry for the Conservatives is the potential loss of the current Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, in Surrey South West. A swing away from him towards the LibDems of just 7.31% would see him politically put out to pasture.
Confident but counting on swing votes
Polls in those constituencies vary considerably, but the LibDems seem confident of definitely taking those with the lowest necessary swings, whenever the national election is called: this year, perhaps in November; next year in May to coincide with more local elections; or maybe November 2024; technically, it could even be January 2025. But, whenever it is, the LibDems are counting on plenty of swing votes as they race speedily towards the finish for first-past-the-post wins, especially in their 12 top target seats in the South East, including Surrey, with swings to the LibDems of anything between 0.6% and 19% in those dozen constituencies (see list at end of article).
Labour outright majority in doubt
What of the wider picture? Ed Balls commented last year in an ITV Breakfast interview that, even then, the next “election is Labour’s to lose”. Polls that put the Conservatives consistently behind Labour at around 20% seem to suggest Mr Balls may be right. So, Sir Keir Starmer may feel he’s on a path to victory, but whether he will gain an outright majority is in some doubt. He may need the support of newly elected Scottish MPs to create an effective majority, and perhaps also a strengthened LibDem presence in Westminster to support a new Labour Government.
Starmer needs to exercise some care along the long road to the finishing post. In 1992, one of his predecessors, Neil Kinnock, lost against all the odds indicated by pre-election polls with his triumphalist cries of “we’re alright” at a pre-election Sheffield Labour gathering before losing to an apparently crushable John “Soapbox” Major in the general election of that year. Although we were led to believe that “It’s The Sun Wot Won It” – a headline penned by editor Kelvin MacKenzie the next day.
The ever-critical Daily Mail fired a warning in its 7 May 2022 edition to Starmer, accusing him of “doing a Kinnock” by predicting a Labour victory in the next general election based on the May local election results.
According to election veteran Jeffrey Archer, interviewed on Times Radio by Jane Garvey on Monday 25 September this year, “a big mistake during a campaign such as Kinnock’s in 1992 can thwart an apparently comfortable lead in the polls overnight”. And there’s long way to go to avoid “mistakes” that could cost an apparently cosy lead.
Nothing solid?
The same could be said for the LibDem hopefuls where modest swings suggest easy victories over the Conservatives. Ed Davey’s closing conference speech on Tuesday 26 September was full of contrasts. An emotional account of his experience of losing both his parents to cancer at a young age did lead at least to something like a positive policy commitment to ensure that cancer diagnoses should lead to treatment within four weeks. No doubt a good, although uncosted, commitment – according to a Sky News political correspondent, likely to “cost some £4 billion over a five-year period”.
But much of the speech was devoted to very heavy negative condemnation of the 13-year Conservative reign. There was a great deal of rhetoric about wanting to put right Davey’s perceived list of wrongs and failures of the Conservative Government, but no detailed policies with which to arm his prospective parliamentary candidates as they hit the campaign trail. And, on Brexit, nothing solid to appeal to “Remainers” (or should that be “Rejoiners”?). Just a possible slogan he suggested be added to ballot slips – a warning that “Conservatives Are Bad For Your Health”.
“Let’s Get To It!”
Davey probably knows full well that the LibDems will not be the next ruling party in Westminster. The best he can hope for is another coalition or bipartisan deal with the largest winning party, but perhaps there’s a need to be careful of what might be wished for. The relatively recent coalition with the Conservatives was hardly covered in glory, and the “LibLab” pact with Labour many years ago wasn’t exactly a success. Floating voters in LibDem target seats might be wary of a coalition or bilateral agreement with Labour. Davey’s comprehensive contempt of the present Conservative Government probably rules out any rapprochement to the Tories. As John Major commented in the 1992 campaign, “Paddy Ashdown [Liberal leader at that time] is the door keeper to a Labour Britain.” Memories of that might haunt the LibDem candidates next time around ….
Despite riding high in the local polls of LibDem target seats, at least Sir Ed avoided the mistake of his processor David Steel – “go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government” – by simply entreating his party members with the rallying cry “Let’s Get To It!”
Wide open for a change
If Jeffrey Archer’s opinion is correct that “after 13 years, the Tory Party is bored, as was Labour after the many years under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown”, then the field could be wide open for a change. But there’s no possibility of accurate projection when there are so many opportunities for slip-ups. A week in politics is a long time, as we know, and there are many weeks to go before the Big Day.
So, low swings for gains might be achievable but perhaps need to be politically handled with care before those “Xs” mark their spots.
LibDem targets and Conservative incumbents in Surrey and Kent where less than a 20% swing might create winning seats for Sir Ed Davey’s party
Carshalton & Wallington (technically in London Borough but postally in Surrey) Elliot Colburn 0.64%
Esher & Walton Dominic Raab 2.17%
Guildford Angela Richardson 2.84%
Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt 7.31%
Sutton and Cheam (technically in London Borough but postally in Surrey) Paul Scully 8.27%
Woking Jonathan Lord 9.42%
Mole Valley Alexander Beresford 10.54%
Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling 15.03%
Reigate Crispin Blunt 17.26%
Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer 18.79%
Beckenham (technically in London Borough but postally in Kent) Bob Stewart 18.88%
Bromley and Chislehurst (technically in London Borough but postally in Kent) Bob Neill 19.02%
Source: www.electionpolling.co.uk/battlegroundtargets/liberal-democrat
