Only last autumn, the Reform Party was polling a record 35% vote share, threatening to upend British politics. Now, the latest polls are showing a substantial fall in support. How solid is Reform UK’s rise?
Not that solid, and much less solid now Nigel Farage is enmeshed in a controversy of his own making over a £5m donation from Christopher Harborne. I can’t comment on the rights or wrongs of these donations, The Met Police and the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards are looking into it. What I can say is that, in politics, perception is everything.
At the time of publishing, there is no finding which proves the donation was unlawful, and he maintains it was a personal gift that he can spend as he sees fit. The Parliamentary Commissioner nevertheless opened an investigation into whether Farage should have registered it; that investigation was suspended after he resigned his seat. But suggesting this is a stitch-up by the establishment is difficult to sustain when Reform itself has become the establishment. Many of the Reform Party are ex-Conservatives, including Farage himself, and contains members who were once in office within the last government (Jenrick, Kruger, and Braverman).
What Reform is being asked to do is show transparency over its funding and that of its parliamentary representatives, as is expected of every party represented in Parliament. Separately, the Metropolitan Police are investigating payments made to Reform UK through Britain Means Business.
Clacton by-election – high risk, high reward?
Farage sought to wrongfoot the “establishment” by resigning his Clacton seat to stand again in a by-election. Instead, he engendered derision because it seems his main opponent is Count Binface, a novelty election candidate. Farage gives a two-finger salute to the establishment was the billing for this by-election but is that true?
Farage has cultivated a ‘hail fellow well met’ image with a pint in his hand, talking his form of common sense to the masses. Whether that image is truthful or accurate is a matter for debate, but in any case, the constant drum beat of revelation about Reform’s interesting form of party financing is now beginning to hit home. Farage may have a fanbase that is almost religious in its fervour — I mean, I saw a Facebook post which depicted a woman almost curtseying to Farage as if he was royalty — but having a loyal fanbase is not the same as winning hearts and minds across the spectrum of public opinion.
Recent reporting has also intensified scrutiny of Reform’s finances. The Guardian has reported on transactions involving George Cottrell — who was convicted of wire fraud in the US in 2017 — his mother Fiona Cottrell, Richard Tice, and the Reform fundraising vehicle Britain Means Business. The Metropolitan Police are investigating two £250,000 donations made to Reform by Britain Means Business before the 2024 general election. Reform figures have denied wrongdoing. Richard Tice was also referred to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards over a £78,100 loan from Cottrell, but the Commissioner decided there was insufficient evidence to open an investigation. Channel 4 News has also raised questions about Christopher Harborne’s electoral registration and overseas residence.
From the fringes to the firing line
In the past Farage and Reform/Brexit/UKIP were seen as irritants by the main parties and to be frank, the BBC and mainstream press gave Reform and Farage a free ride to some extent. However, with the possibility of Reform becoming the party of government, scrutiny and transparency have become more detailed, and Farage and Reform don’t like it.
Relationships between the media and Reform have become tetchy and, in some cases, angry, such as Farage’s charged reaction to Sky News’ questioning. For a political party that decries non-platforming, they are quick to withdraw media access when challenged such being the case in Nottinghamshire in 2025, where the Reform council leadership temporarily barred engagement with local newspaper reporters. It shows that open dialogue only goes so far with some within Reform.
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Walking into the lion’s den
I don’t know if Farage thought deeply at all when forcing a by-election, but some may say that this was very convenient timing considering it paused the Parliamentary Standards investigation. You have to wonder if he might well have cause to regret his actions.
Favourability ratings sit Farage at a -46%, which is the joint-lowest ever in the decade since the poll has run. This is worse than Boris Johnson (-42%) and Keir Starmer (-45%), at their worst periods of popularity. 68% of the public view Farage negatively but the 22% of British supporters have been enough to upset the apple cart with some very hollowed out local authorities. But every time Reform faces a more existential question at Makerfield, Gorton and Denton, or even Cliftonville, the answer comes back as anyone but Farage.
The public typically see the glue that bonds Reform as tenuous, often because their candidates fail to engender familiarity within voters which was Farage’s strong suit. They often seem edgy and snobbish, rather than being community champions.
Reform had the chance to jolt Burnham and Labour at Makerfield, and instead created a formidable opponent with those community instincts they profess to have in abundance. The Burnham bounce is starting to make Farage seem irrelevant, a ghost from (what feels like) a bygone era. He is beginning to look like the defrocked rector of Stiffkey who became a fairground attraction by entering a lion’s cage, until one killed him in the 1930s.
Win or fail: what comes next?
The pundits expect Farage to beat Count Binface by some margin, but you can never discount a Boaty McBoatface event where the public don’t treat things seriously. Even if Farage wins, he is damaged goods. And if by some mischance Binface was to win or do rather well, Farage would become a laughing stock rather than a serious contender for Number 10.
In some ways, a Binface win would be good. Firstly, I doubt if Farage really wants to be PM. He is very good at throwing rotten fruit at the government, but can he take it when others do the same to him? Farage appears to prefer being liked, and clearly enjoys the freedoms that come with a life outside politics where rules about donations are often quite different. As Prime Minister, adulation and freedom may be in short supply and like those running Kent County Council at the moment, the challenges outweigh the benefits.
When Farage faced wooden technocratic opponents May, Starmer, and Sunak, he did well. It’s no secret he can run rings around non-charismatic figures but when faced with the likes of Boris Johnson, who also had a persona greater than his brain or abilities, Farage comparatively crumbled.
With Burnham, he faces someone who has empathy for what I call the ‘uncommon man’, ordinary people who could accomplish the extraordinary if given the resources, and is a great deal more experienced and wilier in government. For example, Farage has termed the proposal of universal adult social care as the “death tax”, and overhauls on this matter have been continuously held back. But Burnham has offered a discussion between political parties to come up with a compromise. He is giving everyone a chance to put their cards on the table, and warned them of the consequences by saying the NHS ‘will collapse’ without social care reform. Reform voters support the NHS like everyone else and the thought of it collapsing is as anathema to them as anyone else and by doing so, he shows just how out of touch Farage really is.
If Count Binface wins, could Farage head to America telling tales of a planned conspiracy? It would likely leave Reform rudderless. Even if he does win by a large margin, the investigations will resume and his affairs and the questions surrounding Reform’s finances will be spread across the media. The Conservatives and Rupert Lowe’s Restore party will continue to chip away at their voter base in the meantime.
