It seems hard to credit it now, but Labour won an overwhelming victory at the general election of 2024. It did so on a very low share of the overall vote, possibly due to the Reform UK Party splitting the vote of the right-of-centre caucus. Labour and the Lib Dems were the beneficiary of this three- or four-way tie, with left-of-centre voters voting tactically to oust incumbent Tory candidates. In Kent, almost all of the Tory MPs lost their seats, taken mostly by Labour with one Lib Dem for Tunbridge Wells. In Surrey, the Tories held six but lost five seats to the Lib Dems.
A year later, Labour and the Tories are looking over their shoulder at a resurgent Reform Party, who were the outstanding winners of the county council elections in May 2025, including taking over Kent County Council (KCC). Before Nigel Farage starts writing his acceptance speech as the incoming PM, we should not run away with the idea that Reform is a shoo-in to win the next general election in 2029.
Reform on the run
For a start, the turn out in the county council elections was poor at under 30% or lower, which is bad even for county council elections. This low turn-out emphasised the hold that Reform and its predecessors had, and have, over the socially conservative older voter.
Like MAGA (Make America Great Again) in the US, this MEGA (Make England Great Again) caucus feels angry and keen enough to go out to vote for what are zombie councils, due for the scrap heap under local government reorganisation. This reorganisation will abolish borough and county councils replacing them with unitary councils led by a mayor.
The cut in winter fuel allowance in 2024 for those not in receipt of pension credit only turbocharged a feeling of injustice within MEGA. But this cut has now been reversed. By 2028/29 when the next election may be held, the voting segmentation will be different. Looking at how Britain voted in the 2024 general election, and evidence of the more progressive views of younger voters, it is suggested that this trend will favour the Greens and Lib Dems, more than Reform at the next national election. By then, Reform will also have a track record to defend at the various county halls in England, particularly Kent.
I never promised you a rose garden
But they did, and now Reform has to deliver.
In Kent, Reform has allowed its DOGE to burrow into the council finances and – shock, horror! So far all it has come up with is ‘absolutely enormous’ home-to-school taxi service bill. So, taxi companies overcharge – quelle horreur! The clock is ticking and the bell is tolling for Reform to balance the KCC budget by next March.
If they think paying the staff less, or cutting their pensions is a way forward, they may well find an impasse and, as a result, attract fewer scarce social workers and planners to work in Kent. They will not find it easy to reduce contracts on highways either.
They have one chance. If they and the other Reform-led councils muff this opportunity, they may not be given a second chance. Reform has got by through using fair words and flaky promises. Even for them, there is an end game, where they will have to put up or shut up.
Reform’s turquoise tornado
I find it most unlikely that the Reform Party will remain with the same cohort of councillors as it started with. Their recruitment drive for candidates before this year’s elections was too hasty. If you place people into positions of power for which they neither have the understanding or, probably, the staying power, to last over the next four years, there is trouble. This is evident already in some of the new Reform councils, wherein they are descending into chaos and falling to childish infighting.
Green roots
For the Greens and Lib Dems, the past 12 months has been one of steady, if not spectacular, progress, with the Lib Dems now having 72 MPs (their largest number in more than a century) and the Greens, four.
In local government, the Lib Dems have more than 3000 councillors. They have won 21 of recent local council by-elections (compared to Reform winning 26), according to Christopher Ward at ALDC. The Greens have 870 local councillors, and have won four local by-elections since May. The Greens and Lib Dems have a rootedness in local affairs.
Will their record of faithful local service win them enough seats in the next general election to overcome the more showy tactics of the Reform party? Only time will tell.
