The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, in conjunction with the World Meteorological Office, issues an annual report on the state of the climate in Europe. Its latest report stated that in 2025, Europe had the third warmest year on record, with average temperatures increasing by 0.58°C per decade since 1996 compared with 0.27°C in the previous decade.
During 2026, we have already seen wildfires spread across Europe as a result of consecutive heatwaves. June 2026 was the hottest June on record for western Europe, averaging 3.05°C above normal, with temperature anomalies peaking around +9°C in France and Germany and a high of 45.1°C in southern Spain.
What are the reasons for this change?
- The Arctic is warming three to four times faster than the global average. Parts of the Arctic Ocean were 7°C warmer than average in 2025, caused by warmer Atlantic waters moving north and speeding up the ice melt. Glaciers in Scandinavia are melting, and the Greenland ice cap lost 139 gigatons of ice during the year. That’s the equivalent of 100 Olympic swimming pools. After a temporary slowdown of ice loss in the early 2020s, record-breaking losses in 2025 and 2026 show that this was just a pause in a long-term trend. New forecasting methods have been developed as the ice loss causes the Atlantic jet stream to meander, with impact on weather patterns and ecosystems across the globe.
- Changes in atmospheric circulation from the Mediterranean to the Arctic are contributing to successive heatwaves, or heat domes, sitting over western Europe. In July 2026 we experienced our fourth heatwave this year.
- Since the 1980s, we have had some success with reduction of air pollutants, which produce clouds that reflect solar energy. But a consequence is that more solar energy is added to the oceans.
- The fourth factor stems from the same principle: the decrease in snow cover in Europe. By March 2025, this cover had decreased by 30% compared with the 1991-2020 average – the third lowest snow cover on record. This shrinkage also reduces albedo, the reflectivity of white surfaces. Land warms faster than the ocean as water can absorb more heat and then lose it by evaporation.
There are other, less obvious contributory causes. Gradual drying out of wetlands, especially peat, helps fires to spread quickly and smoulder underground, making them difficult to extinguish. Mediterranean Posidonia seagrass meadows have steadily declined by 34% over the last 50 years and are now less effective as a carbon sink to reduce global warming. They can store carbon 30 times faster than a tropical rain forest.
What are the effects?
When I travelled across Greece in the early 1990s, I saw the effects of wildfires, a few of which had been deliberately caused by farmers wishing to clear land for agricultural use. Despite overwhelming scientific evidence that global warming is a fact, we still have individuals and nations in denial and claims of a conspiracy. Such claims should be treated as fake news unless evidence is provided.
One case has been proven but appears to have been due to negligence rather than arson. The cause of Spain’s largest recorded fire emerged on 28 July. The Guardia Civil arrested the operator of a rock-breaking excavator that was cutting a new forest track without a permit in defiance of a ban imposed because of extreme fire risk. The operator claimed he was opening a path to high pastures for farmers and admitted the machine had caused a spark.
While France and Spain have been the hardest hit by wildfires, Portugal, Greece (including Crete), Turkey and Italy have also suffered. Some fires have been extremely difficult to control. This is especially the case with pine forests. When pine kernels, full of oil, heat up, they explode like hand grenades and spread the fire. Many isolated fires then merge into megafires.
The costs of wildfires
Seventeen civilians and six firefighters have been killed in France and Spain so far, and 330,000 local residents have been forced from their homes. It is estimated that an excess of at least 12,000 people in the 27 EU nations died due to severe heat during the peak month of June. The financial cost of just fighting the fires in Spain is provisionally estimated at between €1.72bn and €3.28bn. No estimate is yet available for France. There are many hidden, long-term costs, particularly for the tourism and agriculture sectors. The total cost could be in the range of 3.3 to 4.8% of GDP.
EU disaster relief
The European Union has an organisation, called RescEU, whose role is to protect citizens from disasters and to manage emerging risks. It provides a strategic reserve of capabilities, equipment stockpiles and medical supplies, funded by the EU, to respond to natural disasters wherever they occur. An important element of this is a fleet of firefighting aircraft and helicopters to assist the 777 professional firefighters and many civilian volunteers who have risked their lives in recent months.
Traditionally, each nation purchased firefighting aircraft to meet its own perceived needs and requested extra help from neighbours when required. As wildfires have become more prevalent and dangerous, the EU is in the process of coordinating this fleet and acquiring 12 new firefighting planes, to be based in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Croatia and Greece, and three helicopters, to be based in Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Romania. These aircraft will form the ‘permanent RescEU fleet’ and will cost €600mn.
The most capable firefighting aircraft, due to its ability to deliver large quantities of water at low level, is the Canadair Super Scooper, which has been progressively updated from the CL-215 through the CL-415 to the DHC-515. In April 2024, Spain ordered seven new DHC-515, two of which will be paid for by the EU. They will be based at Torrejon de Ardoz airport, 20 km east of Madrid.
The first helicopter of the new RescEU flight was delivered to Romania in January 2026. The most successful firefighting helicopters have been based on the Sikorsky Blackhawk. Two Sikorsky S-70 Firehawk helicopters are now being produced in Poland for delivery to the Czech Republic, with a third as an option.
Prevention is better than relief
Having the organisation and capability to respond to natural disasters is reactive, not pre-emptive. After 25 annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs), world governments have failed to meet the targets we know are required to stop the element of global warming for which human activity is responsible. 2026 is not over yet. The World Meteorological Organization has predicted that the effects of El Niño, which has developed in the tropical Pacific, will increase the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world over the next three months. This will continue the trend of increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves throughout Europe into 2027.
Some of the preventative measures we can take are already being taken as emergency reactive measures. Examples are clearing firebreaks in woodlands and forests (compensated by planting more trees in safer, smaller areas), clearing tinder-dry shrub and vegetation before the fire season starts, and using grazing animals where appropriate. More emphasis needs to be given to this in schools and colleges and to raise public awareness of the consequences of human activity for our environment and ecology.
We must not forget the army of volunteers, many owning bakeries or restaurants, who are providing meals and sustenance to those on the frontline. They should be compensated for their efforts and given reassurance that in future disasters, they will receive supplies of flour and essential food products.
Dependence on fossil fuels
Failure to curb our impact on global warming has a cascading effect that is now apparent in the trend of increasing severity of wildfires. It is not a new phenomenon. In 2016, Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada had a wildfire that rapidly grew out of control and became the biggest natural disaster in Canadian history. What is different today is that whether you live in Canada, Los Angeles or Europe, from the UK to the Balkans, you are at risk of having to evacuate your home. Cascading effects will motivate an increase in human migration and social conflicts.
It is time to undertake a thorough review of our high dependency on fossil fuels and their products. This includes tighter regulation of use of non-combustible roof and building materials. Greater community education on common human causes of ignition, such as campfires, cigarettes and use of electrical machines in areas of dry vegetation, is essential. Greater sharing of intelligence of impending and changing fire threats by all firefighting units involved, in the air and on land, can help with the rapid direction of assets and people, as well as identifying multiple safe evacuation routes.
